Should You Buy Now With Rates This High? An EDH Agent's Take

Should You Buy a Home Right Now With Interest Rates This High? (Yes, Here's the Case)

If you're waiting for interest rates to drop before you buy a home in El Dorado Hills, Folsom, Placerville, or Rescue, here's the direct answer: you're probably better off buying now and refinancing later than waiting for a rate that may not come for years. Rates just hit 6.95% this week, the highest in eight months, which tells you they're just as likely to keep climbing as they are to fall. Rates are a moving target you can renegotiate after closing. The house you actually want, at a price you can actually afford, is not guaranteed to still be there in six months. I've watched three separate "wait for the drop" cycles play out since I got my license in 1998, and the buyers who waited almost never came out ahead.

Let me walk through why.

The Rate Reality Check, Where Things Actually Stand Right Now

As of September 17, 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.95%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the highest it's been since January 2025, up from 6.76% just the week before and 6.26% a year ago. That's not great news, and I'm not going to pretend it is. Nobody's throwing a party over a 6.95% rate, and refinance activity has already dropped roughly 65% year-over-year as the window that helped recent buyers closes back up.

But here's the context that gets lost in the headlines: this isn't some historic anomaly. It's roughly in line with where rates sat for most of 2023–2025. What's actually changed is buyer psychology, people got a brief taste of sub-3% money during the pandemic, and now anything north of 6% feels punishing by comparison. Anchoring to 2021 rates is like being disappointed gas isn't still $1.80 a gallon. That number isn't coming back on its own timeline, and waiting for it to has a real cost.

I've Sold Through Four Rate Cycles Since 1998, Here's What Waiting Actually Cost People

This is the part I feel strongly enough about to put my name on: almost everyone I've watched "wait for a better rate" over the past 25+ years ended up paying more, not less.

The Pattern Repeats Itself

In 2000, buyers waited for rates to come off 8%. They did, eventually, but home prices in this region had already climbed well past what the buyer would have paid initially. In 2007–08, some buyers waited through the crash expecting rates and prices to fall together; a handful timed it well, but a lot more sat on the sidelines so long they missed the actual bottom by 12–18 months and bought back in near the top of the next cycle. In 2022–23, when rates jumped from 3% to 7% almost overnight, I had clients tell me they'd "wait it out." Many are still waiting, watching El Dorado Hills and Folsom prices climb through the wait.

The pattern isn't that rates never drop. It's that home prices in the Sacramento foothills corridor have been remarkably resistant to falling, even when rates spike, because inventory here has stayed structurally tight relative to demand. When rates finally do drop, buyer demand floods back in immediately (it always does), pushing prices up right as your "cheaper" rate becomes available. You rarely get the lower rate and the lower price at the same time. That combination is the exception, not the rule.

"Marry the House, Date the Rate", Why the Cliché Happens to Be Correct

Real estate agents say this constantly, and I get why it sounds like a sales line. It's also just true.

Refinancing Is a Known, Repeatable Process. Losing a House Isn't.

A mortgage rate is not a permanent tattoo. If rates drop 1–1.5 points in the next 18–24 months, as many analysts expect could eventually happen, you refinance. It's paperwork. It's a known process with a known cost, and lenders in this market are actively offering options like temporary buydowns for exactly this reason.

Losing the house you actually wanted, the one with the yard that works for your dog, the school boundary you needed, the commute distance to Sacramento or Folsom that made your life livable, is not something you can refinance your way back into. If you wait for rates and the house sells to someone else, or the next comparable listing is $40,000 more, there's no "redo" button.

What's Actually Happening in El Dorado Hills, Folsom, Placerville, and Rescue Right Now

This is where the national conversation stops being useful and the local picture starts mattering.

• El Dorado Hills: Typical home values are sitting around $920,000, essentially flat to slightly down over the past year, with homes going to pending in around 15–19 days and inventory up to roughly 280–290 active listings, noticeably more breathing room than the ultra-tight market of 2021–2022.
• Folsom: Median sale prices for single-family homes have generally run in the high $700,000s to low $900,000s depending on the segment, with a similarly more balanced supply picture than a few years ago.
• Placerville and Rescue: Both markets remain meaningfully more affordable entry points into the foothills lifestyle, with more negotiating room on price and terms than you'll typically find inside El Dorado Hills proper.

The common thread across all four: higher rates have quietly done buyers a favor by cooling bidding wars and adding inventory. You're seeing fewer over-asking offers, more sellers open to rate buydown credits or closing cost concessions, and homes sitting long enough that you can actually get an inspection contingency instead of waiving everything to compete. That negotiating leverage often offsets more of the "high rate" pain than people expect.

Creative Financing Options Worth Asking About Right Now

This is the part of the conversation buyers skip past too quickly. A 6.95% rate isn't necessarily the rate you'll actually pay for the life of the loan, there are several tools on the table right now that can soften the entry point, and more sellers are willing to help pay for them than at almost any point in the last few years.

Temporary Buydowns (2-1 and 1-0)

A 2-1 buydown lowers your rate by 2 points in year one and 1 point in year two, before settling into your actual note rate in year three, funded by a lump sum, usually paid by the seller or builder, deposited into an escrow account at closing. A 1-0 buydown does the same thing over a single year. These are especially useful right now for buyers who expect their income to grow, or who are betting they'll refinance into a lower rate before the buydown period ends anyway. The seller is essentially prepaying your interest for you; it's one of the first things I ask about on every offer in this rate environment.

Permanent Rate Buydowns (Discount Points)

Different from a temporary buydown, here you or the seller pay an upfront fee to permanently lower the interest rate for the entire loan term, typically around a 0.25% rate reduction per point (though this varies by lender). Whether this math works depends heavily on how long you plan to stay in the home; if you're not confident you'll hold the loan long enough to recoup the upfront cost, a temporary buydown or seller credit is usually the better tool.

Seller-Paid Closing Costs and Credits

Distinct from a buydown, and often easier to negotiate, a seller simply agrees to cover some or all of your closing costs, freeing up your own cash to buy down the rate yourself, cover reserves, or just make the deal pencil. With El Dorado Hills and Folsom inventory up and days-on-market stretching out, this is one of the more common concessions we're seeing sellers agree to right now, especially on listings that have sat for a few weeks.

Assumable Loans

If a seller currently has an FHA, VA, or USDA loan originated when rates were meaningfully lower, in some cases a qualified buyer can assume that existing loan, and its existing rate, instead of originating a brand-new mortgage. These are relatively rare to find and come with their own qualification hurdles, but on the right resale listing, this can be one of the single biggest wins available in a market like this one. Worth asking your agent to flag any assumable-loan listings specifically.

ARMs, Used Deliberately

Adjustable-rate mortgages get a bad reputation from 2008, but used deliberately, not accidentally, they can make sense for a specific type of buyer: someone who knows with real confidence they'll sell or refinance within 5–7 years, in exchange for a meaningfully lower initial rate. This isn't a fit for most buyers, but it's worth a conversation with your lender if your timeline is genuinely short.

None of these tools change the price of the home. What they change is how much of today's rate environment you personally have to absorb, and right now, more sellers are willing to help absorb it than they've been in years.

Who Should Actually Wait (Because Sometimes You Should)

I'm not going to tell every single person to buy right now regardless of circumstances, that would be bad advice, not bullish advice. You should probably hold off if:

• You're not planning to stay in the home at least 3–5 years, since transaction costs eat into short-hold math
• Your job situation or income is genuinely unstable in the next 12 months
• You don't have a real emergency fund left over after the down payment and closing costs
• You're trying to time a "perfect" rate rather than buying a home that fits your life today

If none of those apply to you, the math below is worth sitting with.

The Math, Buying Now vs. Waiting for Rates to Drop

Here's a simplified version of a conversation I have with buyers constantly. Say a home is priced at $800,000 today.

• Buy now at ~6.95%: Higher monthly payment today, but you lock in today's price, start building equity immediately, and refinance if/when rates fall, permanently lowering your payment without touching the purchase price.
• Wait 12–18 months hoping for a rate in the low 5s: If prices in El Dorado Hills or Folsom rise even a modest 4–6% in that window (historically a conservative assumption for this region), that same home is now $832,000–$848,000. A lower rate on a higher price often nets out to a similar or even higher payment than a higher rate on today's price, except now you've also paid 12–18 months of rent with zero equity built.

The buyers who come out ahead over a 5–10 year hold are almost always the ones who bought based on monthly affordability today and treated the rate as adjustable later, not the ones who waited for permission from the Federal Reserve.

FAQ

Q: Are mortgage rates expected to drop soon? A: Not based on the most recent trend. Rates just climbed to 6.95% as of September 17, 2026, the highest in eight months, after several weeks of steady increases. Some longer-range forecasts still expect rates to ease back toward the 6% range over the next year or two, but the immediate direction has been up, not down. Nobody has a reliable crystal ball here, which is exactly why waiting on a prediction is a risky strategy.

Q: Is it smarter to rent and wait for rates to fall? A: Rent in this region has climbed steadily as well, and renting builds no equity. Unless you have a specific, time-limited reason to stay flexible (a job relocation, a major life change in the next year), waiting typically means paying rising rent now in exchange for an uncertain rate later.

Q: What is a temporary rate buydown, and should I ask for one? A: It's a seller- or lender-funded credit that temporarily lowers your interest rate for the first 1–2 years of the loan, easing you into the payment. In today's more balanced El Dorado Hills, Folsom, Placerville, and Rescue markets, more sellers are open to offering these, it's absolutely worth asking your agent to negotiate.

Q: What's the difference between a temporary buydown and a permanent one? A: A temporary buydown (like a 2-1) lowers your rate for the first year or two before it steps up to your actual note rate, usually paid for with a seller or builder credit. A permanent buydown, using discount points, lowers your rate for the entire loan term but requires an upfront cost, which only pays off if you hold the loan long enough to recoup it.

Q: Can I take over the seller's existing mortgage instead of getting a new one? A: Sometimes, if the seller has an FHA, VA, or USDA loan and you qualify to assume it. These "assumable loans" are relatively uncommon and come with their own approval process, but on a resale listing where the seller financed at a lower rate, it can be worth asking your agent to check.

Q: Will I be able to refinance if rates drop later? A: If your credit and financial picture remain solid, yes, refinancing is a standard, well-understood process most homeowners go through at least once. It's a routine paperwork event, not a gamble.

Q: How much has El Dorado Hills' housing inventory changed recently? A: Active inventory has grown to roughly 280–290 listings, giving buyers meaningfully more selection and negotiating room than the ultra-competitive market of a few years ago, even with rates elevated.

Q: Should first-time buyers be especially cautious right now? A: First-time buyers should be especially deliberate about their numbers, but "cautious" shouldn't mean "frozen." Programs like FHA and VA loans currently carry noticeably lower average rates than conventional 30-year loans, which is worth exploring with a lender before ruling anything out.

Author Bio

Scott Ostrode has been a licensed real estate agent since 1998 and owner of Team Ostrode Properties at Keller Williams – El Dorado Hills, serving buyers and sellers throughout El Dorado, Placer and Sacramento Counties. Having guided clients through four distinct interest rate cycles, Scott specializes in helping buyers make confident decisions grounded in real local market data rather than headline anxiety.